Part of the last Operations Committee meeting was devoted to Capacity Planning and Management and there were several documents released. They finally made it to the SPS website (thanks to readers who pointed that out - I lost track in all the financial crisis tangle).
The Enrollment Projections is a series of 30 charts (have fun, kids!) projecting enrollment to 2015. The big number here is that they are saying:
Based on the adjusted projections, the 2015 moderate projected enrollment is 53,969 students. That is a difference of 9200 students.
Let that sink in. Can our district handle 9k plus students? (Of course with the current debacle, that number may be lower.) The biggest growth will be in K-5 which means that it will then flow up to middle and high school after 2015.
The growth seems to be mostly spread out but the biggest jumps will be in the Eckstein and Washington service areas. All the high schools show growth but Chief Sealth and Ingraham. Roosevelt is showed rising quite steadily from 1562 in 2010-11 to 1828 in 2015-16. (Reminder: this is NOT the number at the school or the school's functional capacity; it is the number of students they project living in that area.)
Page 3 of Capacity Management Annual Report discusses functional capacity. I urge you to make a copy of this and keep it handy as the district seems to make this a moving target. This has got to get nailed down. They say on page 7:
District staff has received feedback that there may be some inconsistencies in how the model represents space utilization. Enrollment Planning and Facilities Planning staff is current refresing the model by revisitng the Academic Assurances roll out plan with each Program Manager (Special Educaiton, Bilingual, ALO, and other academic enhancements, programs or services). In addition staff is meeting with principals and walking buildings to update space utilization assumptions. It is anticipated this work will be completed later in the spring of 2011.
That page also has the class size chart. It looks like kindergarten has risen since 2008 when the projected size was 24-23. For 2011, the preliminary number is 25/23.
For grades 2-3 for 2011, it's 25/24.
For grade 4, it's 25/26.
For grade 5, it's 25-28.
For 6-12, it's 30/30.
I don't know why they break out grades 4 and 5 separately and lump 6-12 all together.
Another big line to note:
Portables: For the purpose of this calculation, we are including the on-site portables in a school's capacity.
Pages 3-5 also discuss above capacity and below capacity schools and whether it is a short or long-term impacts.
Severely under capacity schools include:
South Shore K-8, Jane Addams 6-8, Sand Point, McDonald, Queen Anne,
AS#1 K-8, Madrona K-8, Aki Kurose, McClure, Ingraham, RBHS, Cleveland
While I get the short-term issues for the newly opened schools, I am puzzled by South Shore. It is fully K-8 (and has been for a couple of years), gets extra money pumped into it and has a brand new building. Why aren't people filling this building?
No schools are listed as severely overcapacity.
"Watch List Candidates" - schools either 110% or above of functional capacity or 80% and below of functional capacity.
West Seattle Elementary (113%), BF Day (79%), John Stanford Int'l (114%), Gatewood (116%),Hawthorne (76%), Kimball (114%), Gatzert (78%), Lowell (111%), Stevens (111%), Salmon Bay 6-8 (80%), Mercer (78%).
The reasoning for all of these is given as "service area increase."
This is a little confusing as there are schools with lower undercapacity like South Shore, AS#1 (K-5), Jane Addams 6-8.
This work is behind as they pushed it off from Board Work Sessions for budget work. The next workshop on Capacity Management is March 16th.
They will have "criteria for opening, closing, repurposing" by April.
Staff is trying to create a series of documents on a predictable timetable for capacity management.